Sergey Oboguev (oboguev) wrote,
Sergey Oboguev

"Waving Goodbye to Hegemony"
NY Times Magazine, January 27, 2008

отрывки из книги автора “The Second World: Empires and Influence in the New Global Order”
In exploring just a small sample of the second world, we should start perhaps with the hardest case: Russia. Apparently stabilized and resurgent under the Kremlin-Gazprom oligarchy, why is Russia not a superpower but rather the ultimate second-world swing state? For all its muscle flexing, Russia is also disappearing. Its population decline is a staggering half million citizens per year or more, meaning it will be not much larger than Turkey by 2025 or so — spread across a land so vast that it no longer even makes sense as a country. Travel across Russia today, and you’ll find, as during Soviet times, city after city of crumbling, heatless apartment blocks and neglected elderly citizens whose value to the state diminishes with distance from Moscow. The forced Siberian migrations of the Soviet era are being voluntarily reversed as children move west to more tolerable and modern climes. Filling the vacuum they have left behind are hundreds of thousands of Chinese, literally gobbling up, plundering, outright buying and more or less annexing Russia’s Far East for its timber and other natural resources. Already during the cold war it was joked that there were “no disturbances on the Sino-Finnish border,” a prophecy that seems ever closer to fulfillment.

Russia lost its western satellites almost two decades ago, and Europe, while appearing to be bullied by Russia’s oil-dependent diplomacy, is staging a long-term buyout of Russia, whose economy remains roughly the size of France’s. The more Europe gets its gas from North Africa and oil from Azerbaijan, the less it will rely on Russia, all the while holding the lever of being by far Russia’s largest investor. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development provides the kinds of loans that help build an alternative, less corrupt private sector from below, while London and Berlin welcome Russia’s billionaires, allowing the likes of Boris Berezovsky to openly campaign against Putin. The E.U. and U.S. also finance and train a pugnacious second-world block of Baltic and Balkan nations, whose activists agitate from Belarus to Uzbekistan. Privately, some E.U. officials say that annexing Russia is perfectly doable; it’s just a matter of time. In the coming decades, far from restoring its Soviet-era might, Russia will have to decide whether it wishes to exist peacefully as an asset to Europe or the alternative — becoming a petro-vassal of China.

Для тех, кому лень читать латиницу, краткое изложение atorinым:
На финско-китайской границе все спокойно.

Нью-Йорк Таймс весьма откровенно рассуждает о будущем России.
В двух словах - страна второго мира, население исчезает, через 15 лет будет размера Турции, экономика и того меньше, а места слишком много. Природа не терпит вакуума (см. заголовок), а запад в широком смысле постепенно готовит почву - поддерживает демократии в отколовшихся государствах, помогает врагам режима и готовится к аннексии России, которая по утверждению чиновников ЕС вполне реальна. А чего там - лучше быть придатком Европы, чем вассалом Китая.

Нет, ну где таких делают? Просто болтун - находка для шпиона.

* * *

Что, кстати, характерно? Возьмём к примеру вопросы стимуляции рождаемости и снижения смертности (одно время пошедшей на снижение аж в ельцинские времена, но заново вспыхнувшей при Путине).

Ни одна мера
из предложенных напр. в (не говоря уже о программах поддержки пригородной малоэтажной застройки семьями детородного возраста, как то бесплатном предоставлении участков, долгосрочных малопроцентных кредитах под инфраструктуру и т.п.)

не была принята существующим режимом.

И то: "А зачем? Меньше русского быдла, больше кислорода".
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